⚠️ Ukraine's Defeat Was Decided Long AgoI argue that Ukraine's fate was decided long ago. The real question is why leaders keep prolonging the war.
I argue that the war in Ukraine has already reached its strategic outcome, regardless of whether President Trump increases or decreases U.S. support. While Ukraine has made real progress with drones and missile capabilities, I do not believe those gains are enough to overcome Russia’s advantages in what I see as a war of attrition. In my assessment, “Russia is going to win the war,” and there is “literally nothing you can do to change those calculations.” I contend that ending U.S. support would not cause Ukraine’s defeat because, in my view, that outcome is already inevitable. Instead, I believe moving more quickly toward negotiations and an end to the fighting could save lives by shortening the war. I also argue that a number of Western leaders, including Joe Biden, Boris Johnson, Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, and Volodymyr Zelensky, bear responsibility for prolonging the conflict. In my view, those who encouraged the war’s continuation helped contribute to its enormous human cost. I believe “the war should never have been fought” and should have been brought to an end much sooner. You're currently a free subscriber to Daniel Davis Deep Dive. For the full experience, upgrade your subscription. © 2026 Daniel L. Davis |